The Rule of Law
in Guatemala
Key Findings from the General
Population Poll 2022
Acknowledgements
The Rule of Law in Guatemala: Key Findings from the General Population Poll 2022 was produced by the World Justice Project under the research oversight of Alejandro Ponce and the executive direction of Elizabeth Andersen.
The production of this report was led by Ana María Montoya and Tanya Primiani. This report was prepared by Said Aarji, Erin Campbell, James Davis, Joshua Fuller, Skye Jacobs, Ana María Montoya, Santiago Pardo González, Enrique Paulin, Tanya Primiani, Hannah Rigazzi, Natalia Rodríguez Cajamarca, Jeison Sabogal Sánchez, Victoria Thomaides, Carlos Toruño Paniagua, and Moss Woodbury.
Mariana Lopez was the graphic design lead for this report, with support from Raquel Medina. Photo for cover provided by Michiel Ton vis UnSplash.
Sampling, fieldwork, and data processing in Honduras and Guatemala were conducted by Mercaplan, based in Honduras. Data collection in Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama was conducted by CID Gallup, based in Costa Rica. Scripting of the questionnaire in the online platform SurveyToGo was conducted by Ezekiel Agwata of Polar Solutions.
The findings in this report are taken from the General Population Poll (GPP) conducted for the World Justice Project in 2022. The GPP’s conceptual framework and methodology were developed by Mark David Agrast, Juan Carlos Botero, and Alejandro Ponce. The methodology for this iteration of the GPP was developed by Lindsey Bock, Ana Cárdenas, Alicia Evangelides, Joshua Fuller, Nora Futtner, Amy Gryskiewicz, Verónica Jaso, Ana María Montoya, Alejandro Ponce, Eréndira González Portillo, Tanya Primiani, Hannah Rigazzi, Natalia Rodríguez Cajamarca, Victoria Thomaides, and Marcelo Torres.
This report was made possible with the support of the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs' Office of Western Hemisphere (INL). The views expressed in this report are those of the survey respondents and do not necessarily represent the views of INL.
© Copyright 2023 by the World Justice Project.
Requests to reproduce this document should be sent to:
Alejandro Ponce
World Justice Project
1025 Vermont Avenue NW, Suite 1200
Washington, DC 20005, USA
Email: [email protected]
Washington, DC
1025 Vermont Avenue NW, Suite 1200
Washington, DC 20005, USA
P +1 (202) 407-9330
Mexico City
Gobernador José Guadalupe Covarrubias
57-20, San Miguel Chapultepec, 11850,
Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico City
worldjusticeproject.mx
ABOUT
THIS REPORT
ABOUT THIS REPORT
EFFECTIVE RULE OF LAW reduces corruption, combats poverty and disease, and protects people from injustices large and small. Strengthening the rule of law is an important objective for governments, donors, and civil society organizations around the world. To be effective, rule of law development requires clarity about the fundamental features that define the rule of law, as well as an adequate basis for its evaluation and measurement.
The Rule of Law in Guatemala: Key Findings from the General Population Poll 2022 presents question-level data drawn from the General Population Poll (GPP), an original data source designed and collected by the World Justice Project. To provide a more in-depth view of trends in perceptions of rule of law in Guatemala, this report also presents select findings over time and compared to Guatemala’s regional peers within the Central American subregion of Latin America and the Caribbean.
The GPP was conducted between November 2022 and January 2023 through face-to-face interviews to a nationally representative sample of 2,002 Guatemalan households. This poll was designed to capture data on the experiences and perceptions of ordinary people regarding a variety of themes related to the rule of law.
This report represents the voices of people in Guatemala and their experiences with the rule of law in their country.
The data derived from the General Population Poll is presented in this report as thematic briefs, each one highlighting a different dimension of the rule of law from the perspective of Guatemalans. These thematic briefs focus on the current rule of law ecosystem in Guatemala while simultaneously illuminating changes over time and comparisons across the following peer countries in the Central American region: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. Each section touches upon perceptions of and attitudes towards the following topics: accountability, authoritarianism, fundamental freedoms, corruption, bribery victimization, trust in institutions, the criminal justice system and its actors, police performance, crime victimization, support for victims of crime, security, access to justice, and migration.
EXECUTIVE FINDINGS
The Rule of Law in Guatemala: Key Findings from the General Population Poll 2022 provides a comprehensive overview of how citizens perceive and experience the rule of law in Guatemala alongside comparative findings across the Central American region. The findings in this report indicate some positive trends in the general public’s perspective on the rule of law in Guatemala, including improvement in perceptions of corruption and personal safety. Despite these positive developments, however, these findings highlight the fact that many challenges—including relatively high perceptions of authoritarian behavior, declining levels of trust in institutions, and weakened confidence in criminal justice system performance—persist. At the regional level, prominent trends include deteriorating perceptions of fundamental freedoms, low levels of trust in institutions, and weakened confidence in criminal justice system performance.
SECTION 1
Authoritarianism, Fundamental Freedoms, and Accountability
1. Authoritarianism
On average, roughly half of all respondents in Central America agreed that top government officials engage in authoritarian behavior. Among respondents in Central America, on average, Guatemalans most often felt that top government officials engage in authoritarian behavior and Panamanians least often felt that top government officials engage in authoritarian behavior.
- When asked about authoritarian tendencies in Guatemala, respondents most often felt that top government officials attack or attempt to discredit the media and civil society organizations that criticize them (63%), attack or attempt to discredit the electoral system and other supervisory organs (61%), and prosecute and convict journalists and leaders of civil society organizations (60%).
- Compared to their regional counterparts, respondents in Guatemala most often felt that top government officials attack or attempt to discredit the media and civil society organizations that criticize them (63%), attack or attempt to discredit the electoral system and other supervisory organs (61%), prosecute and convict journalists and leaders of civil society organizations (60%), and seek to limit the courts’ competencies and freedom to interpret the law (54%).
2. Fundamental Freedoms
On average, fewer respondents believe that their freedoms of expression, political participation, election, and religion are guaranteed in Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Panama compared to the last year of data collection. In contrast, the average percentage of respondents who believe that these freedoms are guaranteed increased in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. Throughout the region, Costa Ricans, on average, most often felt that fundamental freedoms are guaranteed by the state, while Nicaraguans least often felt the same.
- When asked about respect for fundamental freedoms in Guatemala, respondents had more favorable views on freedom of religion, with 91% of respondents agreeing that religious minorities can observe their holy days. Conversely, Guatemalans had less favorable views on electoral freedoms, with 43% of respondents agreeing that local government officials are elected through a clean process.
- Between 2021 and 2022, Guatemala’s most significant trends in public opinions on freedoms include an improvement in the perception that religious minorities can observe their holy days (up 8 percentage points) and a decline in the perception that local government officials are elected through a clean process (down 7 percentage points).
3. Accountability
Perceptions of accountability in Central America are relatively positive compared to in the rest of Latin America. However, less than half of all respondents in Central American countries believe that high-ranking officials would be held accountable for breaking the law (with the exception of El Salvador, where 51% of respondents believe this to be the case). Respondents in Belize had the most negative perceptions of accountability when compared against regional peers in Central America (only 22% of respondents believe that high-ranking government officials would be held accountable for breaking the law).
- Nearly two-fifths (38%) of Guatemalans believe that high-ranking government officials would be held accountable for breaking the law.
SECTION 2
Corruption and Trust
4. Corruption
Public views on the pervasiveness of corruption within the legislature, law enforcement, the executive branch, and the judiciary improved, on average, in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama, whereas overall perceptions of corruption deteriorated in Belize, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Compared to Central American peer countries, El Salvador saw the largest decreases in the percentage of respondents who believe that some or all of the actors across all of these institutions are involved in corrupt practices, while Nicaragua saw the largest increases in the percentage of respondents who believe the same. On average, more Nicaraguans reported perceptions of corruption across all actors than their regional peers in Central America, while Salvadorans reported the same least frequently.
- Perceptions of corruption in Guatemala improved most for members of the National Assembly, with 62% of respondents believing that most or all members of the legislature engage in corrupt practices in 2022, compared to 68%% in 2021.
- Members of political parties are considered the most corrupt actors in Guatemala. Approximately 65% of respondents believe that most or all members of Guatemalan political parties are involved in corrupt practices.
- Teachers in public schools are considered the least corrupt actors in Guatemala, with 17% of respondents reporting that they believe most or all teachers are involved in corrupt practices.
5. Bribery Victimization
On average, Central American respondents reported paying a bribe most often in Nicaragua and least often in Costa Rica. Throughout the region, respondents most frequently had to pay a bribe when requesting a government permit and least often when using public health services, on average.
6. Trust
Respondents in Central America, on average, trust people living in their community more than any other public actor and trust national government officers the least. On average, respondents in Honduras least often reported having some or a lot of trust across all institutions. In contrast, respondents in El Salvador reported the highest overall levels of trust.
- Levels of trust in Guatemala declined across every institution between 2021 and 2022. Trust in public defense attorneys worsened the most between 2021 and 2022, with a decrease of six percentage points.
- In 2022, respondents in Guatemala most often reported having some or a lot of trust in people living in their community (57%) and least often reported having some or a lot of trust in national government officers (23%).
SECTION 3
Security and Criminal Justice
7. Crime Victimization
On average, roughly one-quarter (27%) of all respondents surveyed in Central America reported experiencing a crime in the last 12 months. On average, less than half (44%) of those respondents reported their crime experience to an authority.
- Approximately one-quarter (26%) of Guatemalans reported experiencing a crime in the last 12 months, a figure just below the regional average (27%).
- More than half (53%) of Guatemalan respondents who were victims of a crime did not report the crime to an authority, with those respondents most often citing the belief that reporting would not help as their reason for not reporting (37%).
8. Security
More than half of all Central American respondents feel safe or very safe when walking in their neighborhood at night. Perceptions of safety improved or remained the same in 5 out of 7 Central American countries between 2022 and the last year of data collection, and declined only in Panama and Nicaragua (down 5 and 8 percentage points, respectively). Compared to respondents in regional peer countries, Salvadorans most often reported feeling safe in their neighborhood at night (89%), while slightly more than half of Costa Ricans, Nicaraguans, and Panamanians (52%) reported the same.
- In Guatemala, approximately 3 in 5 (59%) respondents reported feeling safe walking in their neighborhood at night in 2022, marking a slight improvement from 57% in 2021.
- Guatemalan women, Guatemalans who live in an urban area, and Guatemalans who had previously been a victim of a crime were less likely to feel safe walking in their neighborhood at night than respondents with other sociodemographic characteristics.
9. Criminal Justice
Throughout Central America, respondents are most confident that the criminal justice system safeguards the presumption of innocence and least confident that the criminal justice system ensures timeliness, on average. Respondents in El Salvador reported the highest levels of confidence in the criminal justice system overall, while respondents in Honduras reported the lowest levels of confidence. Average perceptions of the criminal justice system’s overall performance deteriorated in 4 out of 6 Central American countries, while respondents in Costa Rica and El Salvador expressed more positive views on every function between 2022 and the last cycle of data collection.
- Guatemalans were most confident that the criminal justice system safeguards the presumption of innocence of defendants (60%) and ensures equal treatment of the accused (58%). Guatemalans were least confident that the criminal justice system ensures timeliness (42%) and gives appropriate punishments (48%).
- Perceptions of adherence to proportionate punishments in the Guatemalan criminal justice system worsened the most between 2021 and 2022, with a decline of 7 percentage points.
10. Police Performance
When asked about their impressions of police performance, respondents in Central America had the most negative views on accountability and due process and the most positive views on public service and crime control, on average.
- When asked about their impressions of police performance, respondents in Guatemala were most confident that:
- Police treat all people with respect (73%).
- Police are available to help when needed (69%).
- Police help them feel safe (66%).
- Respondents in Guatemala were least confident that:
- Police act lawfully (27%).
- Police perform effective and lawful investigations (33%).
- Police do not serve the interests of politicians (33%).
- Police are held accountable for violating laws (33%).
- In Guatemala, respondents most often indicated that suspects with tattoos and male suspects would most likely be at a disadvantage in a criminal investigation.
11. Victim Support
In almost every country surveyed in Central America, less than half of all respondents, on average, believed that victims of crime receive adequate support and protection, with the exception of El Salvador. Respondents in El Salvador reported the most confidence in victim support practices overall, while respondents in Honduras reported the least confidence in the victim support practices overall.
- Guatemalans were most often confident that crime victims guaranteed their rights in criminal justice proceedings (49%) and are addressed by the police using accessible language (47%).
- Guatemalans were least often confident that crime victims are believed (23%) and receive prompt and courteous attention (24%) when reporting a crime.
SECTION 4
Access to Justice
12. Access to Justice
One in four (25%) respondents in Central America reported experiencing a legal problem in the last two years, on average. While the prevalence and severity of problems vary by country, the most common problems relate to housing and land disputes. On average, 57% of respondents in Central America reported that their legal problem has been resolved and nearly three-quarters (73%) of all settled problems were resolved within 6 months.
- Nearly one-fifth (19%) of Guatemalans reported experiencing a legal problem in the last two years (a figure below the regional average of 25%). The most commonly reported problems included housing issues and land disputes.
- Twenty-three percent (23%) of surveyed Guatemalans with a legal problem obtained advice from a person or organization that could help them better understand or resolve their problem, and approximately 3 in 5 (60%) reported that it was difficult or nearly impossible to find the money required to resolve their problem.
- Thirty-six percent (36%) of respondents in Guatemala who resolved their legal issue experienced at least one hardship during the resolution process. The most frequently cited hardship was health-related – 27% of respondents reported experiencing a physical or stress-related illness.
SECTION 5
Migration
13. Internal Migration
On average, roughly one-quarter (26%) of respondents in Central America reported having moved within their country. Throughout the region, respondents consistently cited better economic or educational opportunities and family reasons as their primary reason for moving.
- Out of all Guatemalans who migrated internally, respondents most frequently migrated to Huehuetenango (31% of respondents) from another city in Guatemala.
- Guatemalans who are younger than 30 were more likely to have migrated internally within the last three years.
14. International Migration
Compared to peer respondents in Central America, Hondurans most often reported that they would like to migrate internationally, while Panamanians least often reported the same. Throughout the region, respondents consistently cited better economic or educational opportunities and less violence and corruption as their primary reasons for wanting to move. The United States was the top international migration destination for all respondents in the region. On average, 82% of respondents desiring to migrate internationally across the region have friends or family currently living in their destination country.
- Guatemalans were less likely to want to move internationally in 2022 (25% of respondents) than in 2021 (29% of respondents). Compared to respondents in other cities in Guatemala, respondents in Guatemala City most frequently reported wanting to move to another country (32% of respondents).
15. Migration to the United States
On average, 1 in 10 (10%) respondents in Central America have attempted to migrate to the United States. The majority of those who had attempted to migrate to the United States from Central America had traveled via plane or bus and most frequently reported that they traveled alone. On average, of those who had entered the United States, Central American respondents most often cited their reason for leaving the United States as family or social reasons (16%) or having been deported by ICE (14%). Of the Central American respondents that attempted to migrate to the United States, an average of 12% of respondents were subjected to violence and 22% were asked for a bribe.
- Nine percent (9%) of respondents in Guatemala have attempted to migrate to the United States and just under half (44%) of those respondents successfully entered the United States before returning to Guatemala.
- Fifty-six percent (56%) of respondents who reported having attempted to migrate to the United States did not end up entering the country. Of those respondents, 29% were sent back by law enforcement and 29% did not enter because they ran out of funds.
Note: In addition to the data found in regional charts included in this report, comparative data for regional peer countries referenced in the Executive Findings can be found in each country’s respective report.
THEMATIC FINDINGS
SECTION I
AUTHORITARIANISM, FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS,
AND ACCOUNTABILITY
AUTHORITARIANISM
CHART 1.
Perceptions of Authoritarian Behaviors
Percentage of respondents who believe that top government officials...
◆Belize ◆Costa Rica ◆El Salvador Guatemala ◆Honduras ◆Panama
ATTACKS ON ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AND OPPOSITION PARTIES
ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY
ATTACKS ON THE MEDIA AND MISINFORMATION
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
CHART 2.
Attitudes Towards Authoritarianism and Rule of Law
Percentage of respondents who agree with the following statements
The president can attack the media, civil society, and opposition groups
The president must respect the media, civil society, and opposition groups
None of the above
The president can undermine independent authorities
The president must respect independent authorities
None of the above
Government efficiency is more important than citizen influence
It is important that citizens have a say in government matters, even at the expense of efficiency
None of the above
The president should not be bound by the laws or courts
The president must always obey the law and the courts
None of the above
It is not necessary to obey the laws of a government that you did not vote for
It is important to obey the government in power, no matter who you voted for
None of the above
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS
CHART 3.
Fundamental Freedoms in Guatemala Over Time
Percentage of respondents who believe the following statements
EXPRESSION
People can express opinions against the government
Civil society organizations can express opinions against the government
Political parties can express opinions against the government
The media can express opinions against the government without fear of retaliation
The media can expose cases of corruption
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
PARTICIPATION
People can attend community meetings
People can join any political organization
People can organize around an issue or petition
ELECTIONS
Local government officials are elected through a clean process
People can vote freely without feeling harassed or pressured
RELIGION
Religious minorities can observe their holy days
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
CHART 4.
Perceptions of Fundamental Freedoms in Central America
Percentage of respondents who believe the following statements
BLZ = Belize CRI = Costa Rica SLV = El Salvador GUA = Guatemala HND = Honduras NIC = Nicaragua PAN = Panama
EXPRESSION
People can express opinions against the government
Civil society organizations can express opinions against the government
Political parties can express opinions against the government
The media can express opinions against the government without fear of retaliation
The media can expose cases of corruption
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
PARTICIPATION
People can attend community meetings
People can join any political organization
People can organize around an issue or petition
ELECTIONS
Local government officials are elected through a clean process
People can vote freely without feeling harassed or pressured
RELIGION
Religious minorities can observe their holy days
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY
CHART 5.
Perceptions of Accountablity in Central America Over Time
Percentage of respondents in Guatemala and regional peer countries who believe that high-ranking government officials would be held accountable for breaking the law
Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Panama
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022
THEMATIC FINDINGS
SECTION II
CORRUPTION AND TRUST
CORRUPTION
CHART 6.
Perceptions of Corruption by Institution Over Time
Percentage of respondents who believe that most or all people working in the following institutions are corrupt
MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
POLICE OFFICERS
EXECUTIVE
Local Government Officers
National Government Officers
JUDICIARY
Prosecutors Judges & Magistrates
Public Defense Attorneys
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
CHART 7.
Perceptions of Corruption in Central America, by Institution
Percentage of respondents who think people in the following groups are involved in corrupt practices
◆Belize ◆Costa Rica ◆El Salvador Guatemala ◆Honduras ◆Nicaragua ◆Panama
THE MEDIA AND POLITICAL PARTIES
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
ADMINISTRATIVE AND BUREAUCRATIC INSTITUTIONS
SECURITY AND JUSTICE INSTITUTIONS
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
CHART 8.
Attitudes Towards Corrupt Behaviors in Central America
Percentage of respondents who believe the following behaviors are always or usually acceptable
◆Belize ◆Costa Rica ◆El Salvador Guatemala ◆Honduras ◆Nicaragua ◆Panama
BRIBES OFFERED
BRIBES REQUESTED
NEPOTISM AND EMBEZZLEMENT
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
BRIBERY VICTIMIZATION
CHART 9.
Bribery Victimization in Guatemala and Regional Peer Countries
Percentage of respondents who paid a bribe in the last three years to access the following services, out of those who used these services
REQUEST A GOVERNMENT PERMIT OR DOCUMENT
REQUEST PUBLIC BENEFITS OR ASSISTANCE
OBTAIN A BIRTH CERTIFICATE OR GOVERNMENT ISSUED ID
SECURE A PLACE AT A PUBLIC SCHOOL
USE A PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
TRUST
CHART 10.
Trust in Institutions Over Time
Percentage of respondents who have a lot or some trust in...
PEOPLE LIVING IN THEIR COUNTRY
People in their country
People in their community
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Police Officers
EXECUTIVE
Local Government Officers
National Government Officers
JUDICIARY
Prosecutors Judges & Magistrates
Public Defense Attorneys
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
THEMATIC FINDINGS
SECTION III
SECURITY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
CRIME VICTIMIZATION
CHART 11.1
Types of Crimes Experienced by People in Guatemala
Victimization rate, by type of crime
CHART 11.2
Crime Victimization Rates and Reporting
Data on crime victimization and reporting in Guatemala
Note: For additional information on how Chart 11.1 and 11.2 were produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
SECURITY
CHART 12.1
Perceptions of Security in Guatemala Over Time
Percentage of respondents who reported that they feel safe or very safe walking in their neighborhood at night
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
CHART 12.2
Impact of Sociodemographic Characteristics on Perceptions of Safety
Likelihood that respondents feel safe or very safe walking in their neighborhood at night
Note: The results in this infographic were obtained from a logit regression. Each point indicates the average marginal effect of the corresponding sociodemographic characteristic on the predicted probability of a respondent to answer “safe” or “very safe” to the question “How safe do you feel walking in your neighborhood at night?” The lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals of each average marginal effect. For additional information on how Chart 12.2 was produced, please see the Regression Key linked in the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
CRIMINAL JUSTICE
CHART 13.
Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System in Guatemala
Percentage of respondents who are confident that the criminal justice system...
2022 2021
Note: For additional information on how Chart 13 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2021 and 2022
CHART 14.
Criminal Justice Actors
Perceptions of criminal justice actors in Guatemala
Prosecutors Public Defense Attorneys Judges & Magistrates
TRUST IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE ACTORS OVER TIME
Percentage of respondents who have a lot or some trust in prosecutors, public defense attorneys, and judges and magistrates
PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION ACROSS CRIMINAL JUSTICE ACTORS OVER TIME
Percentage of respondents who believe that most or all prosecutors, public defense attorneys, and judges and magistrates are corrupt
PERCEPTIONS OF EFFECTIVENESS ACROSS CRIMINAL JUSTICE ACTORS OVER TIME
Percentage of respondents who believe that prosecutors, public defense attorneys, and judges and magistrates do their job well
Note: Variables in Effectiveness category are as follows: Prosecutors prosecute crimes committed in an independent manner and are not subject to any sort of pressure; Public defenders do everything they can to defend poor people that are accused of committing a crime; Judges decide cases in an independent manner and are not subject to any sort of pressure.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2022
POLICE
CHART 15.
Perceptions of the Police
Opinions on the effectiveness and legitimacy of law enforcement
EFFECTIVENESS
Serve the Public
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police...
Crime Control and Safety
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police...
LEGITIMACY
Due Process
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police...
Discrimination
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police do not discriminate against suspects based on....
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
Corruption
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police...
Trust and Crime Reporting
Percentage of respondents who...
Accountability
Percentage of respondents who believe that the police...
Note: For additional information on how Chart 15 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
CHART 16.
Interactions with the Police
Experiences of respondents in Guatemala who interacted with the police
VOLUNTARY
Total voluntary interactions
Percentage of respondents who contacted the police
Causes
Reasons reported by respondents who contacted the police
Experience during the last interaction
Percentage of respondents who said that the police…
SERVE THE PUBLIC
DUE PROCESS
INVOLUNTARY
Total involuntary interactions
Percentage of respondents who were contacted by the police
Causes
Reasons reported by respondents who were contacted by the police
Experience during the last interaction
Percentage of respondents who said that the police…
SERVE THE PUBLIC
DUE PROCESS
Note: For additional information on how Chart 16 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2021
VICTIM SUPPORT
CHART 17.
Perceptions of the Treatment of Crime Victims
Percentage of respondents who are confident that crime victims...
Note: For additional information on how Chart 17 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
THEMATIC FINDINGS
SECTION IV
ACCESS TO JUSTICE
ACCESS TO JUSTICE JOURNEY
CHART 18.
Justice Journey in Guatemala
Paths followed by Guatemalans who experienced a legal problem in the last two years
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
Note: For additional information on how Chart 18 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
THEMATIC FINDINGS
SECTION V
MIGRATION
INTERNAL MIGRATION
CHART 19.1
Rates of Internal Migration, by City
Percentage of respondents who moved within Guatemala and reasons for migration
Note: For additional information on how Chart 19.1 was produced, please see the Appendix.
CHART 19.2
Impact of Sociodemographic Characteristics on Internal Migration
Likelihood that respondents...
HAVE MIGRATED WITHIN GUATEMALA
HAVE MIGRATED WITHIN GUATEMALA IN THE LAST 3 YEARS
Note: These figures show the results of two logit regressions. On the left, each point indicates the average marginal effect of the corresponding sociodemographic characteristic on the predicted probability that a respondent answers “no” to the question “Do you live in the same city in which you were born?” On the right, each point indicates the average marginal effect of the corresponding sociodemographic characteristic on the predicted probability that a respondent answers “less than a year” or “1-3 years” to the question “How long have you lived in this city?” The lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals of each average marginal effect. For additional information on how Chart 19.2 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
CHART 20.1
International Migration Intentions
Percentage of respondents who would like, or have plans, to move internationally, by country
CHART 20.2
International Migration by City
Percentage of respondents who would like, or have plans, to migrate internationally, by city
Note: For additional information on how Chart 20.2 was produced, please see the Appendix.
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2021 and 2022
MIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES
CHART 21.
Pathway to the United States
Experiences of Guatemalans who reported attempting to migrate to the United States
Note: In Chart 21, “Family or social reasons” reflects related responses under the “To visit family or friends, go on vacation, or attend a social or religious event” and “Other (specify)” categories in the question “What was the main reason you left the US?”
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
CHART 22.1.
Insecurity on the Journey to the United States
Percentage of respondents who were subjected to violence or had to pay a bribe during their jouney to the United States
Bribery victimization Victim of violence or abuse
CHART 22.2.
Violence Experienced by Migrants from Guatemala
Victimization rates, by type of violence
CHART 22.3.
Violence and Bribery Victimization, by Stage of the Journey
Percentage of Guatemalans who were subjected to violence or had to pay a bribe during each stage of the journey to the United States
Bribery Violence
Source: WJP General Population Poll 2022
PROJECT DESIGN
METHODOLOGY
To present an image that accurately portrays the rule of law as experienced by ordinary people, data in this report is drawn from the General Population Poll (GPP), an original data source designed and collected by the World Justice Project (WJP). The GPP captures the experiences and perceptions of ordinary citizens concerning the performance of the state and its agents and the actual operation of the legal framework in their country.
The General Population Poll used to collect data in Guatemala in 2022 features several new questions that highlight perceptions on issues salient to the region, including corruption, authoritarian behaviors, police performance, criminal justice, and security. In total, the General Population Poll questionnaire includes 162 perception-based questions and 86 experience-based questions, along with sociodemographic information on all respondents. Additionally, the GPP in Guatemala was administered to a sample of 2,002 respondents.
Data Collection
The GPP in Guatemala was conducted for the WJP's The Rule of Law in Guatemala: Key Findings from the General Population Poll 2022 with sampling, fieldwork, and data processing by Mercaplan, based in Guatemala City, Guatemala. Mercaplan administered the surveys between November 2022 and January 2023, conducting face-to-face interviews using a multi-stage stratified random sampling design. The target population group for this survey included Guatemalans aged 18 years or older residing across 21 departments throughout the country.
SAMPLE SIZE AND SAMPLE FRAME
The General Population Poll in Guatemala represents an achieved total sample size of 2,002 interviews distributed proportionally across four regions. Mercaplan based the sampling frame on 2016 and 2018 population figures from the Guatemalan National Institute of Statistics (INE), acquiring a proportionally stratified sample by region, age, gender, socioeconomic status, and level of urbanization.
In order to address all relevant topics while controlling the questionnaire length, the World Justice Project split three of the survey modules into two versions (Option A and Option B) and randomly assigned one option to each respondent for each module. These modules included: Hypothetical Situations, Civic Participation, and Institutional Performance. Aside from these modules, the questionnaires are identical. A link to the complete survey instrument, in English and Spanish, can be found in the Appendix of this report.
SAMPLING
Regions and departments were selected to achieve a nationally representative sample of the country based on population density and geographic coverage. In urban areas, municipalities were selected as the primary sampling unit using probability proportionate to size sampling. In rural areas, towns and villages were selected as the primary sampling unit using the same method. Individual enumeration areas consisted of neighborhood and were selected via simple random sampling. The number of interviews assigned to each enumeration area was determined based on relative population size. Within each enumeration area, survey administrators performed a systematic random route to sample households and used the Last Birthday method to select respondents. If the selected respondent declined to be interviewed or otherwise did not meet the characteristics of the target quota, the interviewer moved on to the next household.
DESCRIPTION OF THE SAMPLE
COVERAGE: Interviews were distributed across regions to create a nationally representative sample. Thirty-three percent (33%) of the interviews took place in the Central region, followed by 28% in the Southwestern region, 28% in the Northeastern region, and 11% in the Greater Southwestern region.
GEOGRAPHY: Forty-two percent (42%) of respondents resided in rural areas and municipalities, while 58% of respondents resided in metro areas or cities.
RACIAL AND ETHNIC BACKGROUND: Most respondents (77%) identified themselves as Mestizo, followed by Mayan (16%).
GENDER: Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents were female and 52% were male.
EDUCATION: Most respondents (58%) reported that they had received at least a high school diploma or vocational degree, and the remaining 42% of respondents received up to a middle school diploma.
RESPONSE RATES
| Eligible household, non-interview | 3,255 |
| Refusals | 3,125 |
| Break-off | 130 |
| Non-contact | 0 |
INTERVIEWING AND QUALITY CONTROL
In total, 20 interviewers worked on this project, including 12 female interviewers. Enumerators worked in five groups of four interviewers with one supervisor each. Interviews were conducted in Spanish.
The supervisory team directly oversaw all interviews in the field and validated 24% of all interviews in-person. During data processing, 327 interviews (approximately 16% of the sample) were selected for audio review by the central office and 335 interviews (approximately 17% of the sample) were backchecked via telephone. Additional quality control measures included geo-fencing, audio quality checks, and checks for abnormal interview length. After quality control, 54 interviews were rejected from the final sample. Interviews averaged 45 minutes in length.
DATA REVIEW AND JUSTIFICATION
As part of the data analysis process, the team consulted several third-party sources in order to contextualize and validate perception-based data captured by the General Population Poll and compare it with the objective rule of law situation in-country. Peer data sources consulted include select indicators measured by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP)'s AmericasBarometer, Latinobarómetro, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index (BTI), and Freedom House's Freedom in the World. While certain trends captured by the 2022 General Population Poll in Guatemala are comparable to trends in perceptions data measured by other indices, the experiences and perceptions presented in this report may not always coincide with the reality of Guatemala's rule of law performance as measured by other sources.
HISTORICAL DATA
Historical data in this report derives from the WJP Rule of Law Index®'s General Population Poll that is typically administered every two to three years using a nationally representative probability sample ranging from 500 to 1,000 respondents. These household surveys were administered in the three largest cities of most countries until 2018, when the World Justice Project transitioned to nationally representative coverage as the preferred methodology for polling. The historical polling data used in this year's reports was collected in the following intervals: Data for Belize, Costa Rica, and Honduras was collected in 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Data for Panama was collected in 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Data for El Salvador and Guatemala was collected in 2016, 2018, and 2022.
ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
The Rule of Law in Guatemala: Key Findings from the General Population Poll 2022 includes comparisons to the following Central American countries surveyed by the World Justice Project during the same period: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. This report is additionally part of a series that presents findings from the following five sub-regions within Latin America and the Caribbean: Andes (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru); Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay); Eastern Caribbean (Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago); Greater Antilles, The Bahamas, and the Guianas (The Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Suriname); and Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama). Together, these 26 countries are a portion of the 140 countries and jurisdictions included in the WJP Rule of Law Index 2022 report. Detailed information regarding the methodology of the Rule of Law Index is available at: www.worldjusticeproject.org.
| Country | Polling Company | Methodology | Sample |
| Argentina | StatMark Group | Face-to-face | 759 |
| The Bahamas | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Barbados | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Belize | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 1,500 |
| Bolivia | Captura Consulting | Face-to-face | 1,000 |
| Brazil | About Brazil Market Research | Face-to-face | 1,109 |
| Colombia | Tempo Group SA | Face-to-face | 1,000 |
| Costa Rica | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 1,005 |
| Dominica | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Dominican Republic | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 1,002 |
| Ecuador | StatMark Group | Face-to-face | 1,005 |
| El Salvador | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 2,010 |
| Grenada | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Guatemala | Mercaplan | Face-to-face | 2,002 |
| Guyana | StatMark Group | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Haiti | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 507 |
| Honduras | Mercaplan | Face-to-face | 2,000 |
| Jamaica | StatMark Group | Face-to-face | 1,001 |
| Nicaragua | CID Gallup | Telephone | 1,014 |
| Panama | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 2,023 |
| Paraguay | Datum Internacional S.A./BM Business Partners | Face-to-face | 1,000 |
| Peru | Datum Internacional S.A. | Face-to-face | 1,029 |
| St. Lucia | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | DMR Insights Ltd. | Face-to-face | 500 |
| Suriname | D3: Designs, Data, Decisions | Face-to-face | 502 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | CID Gallup | Face-to-face | 1,001 |
APPENDIX
APPENDIX
Methodological Materials
GENERAL POPULATION POLL (GPP)
The General Population Poll in Central America was designed to capture high-quality data on the realities and concerns of ordinary people on a variety of themes related to the rule of law, including authoritarianism, government accountability, bribery, corruption, police, crime and security, access to justice, and migration.
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHICS ON CRIME VICTIMIZATION
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct Chart 11.1 and the “Reasons the crime was not reported” table in Chart 11.2.
World Justice Project Crime Rates and Reporting Variable Map
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHIC ON THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct Chart 13.
World Justice Project Criminal Justice System Variable Map
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHICS ON THE POLICE
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct Chart 15 and Chart 16.
World Justice Project Police Performance Variable Map
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHIC ON PERCEPTIONS OF THE TREATMENT OF CRIME VICTIMS
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct Chart 17.
World Justice Project Victim Support Variable Map
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHIC ON ACCESS TO JUSTICE
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct Chart 18.
World Justice Project Access to Justice Variable Map
VARIABLES USED IN INFOGRAPHICS ON MIGRATION BY CITY
This table lists the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used to construct the “Reasons for Migration” tables in Chart 19.1 and Chart 20.2.
World Justice Project Migration Variable Map
REGRESSION TABLES FOR REGRESSION ANALYSIS USED IN INFOGRAPHICS ON PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY AND MIGRATION
This document includes the question-level variables from the General Population Poll used in the regression analysis and the regression results featured in the following infographics: Chart 12.2 and Chart 19.2.
ABOUT THE WORLD JUSTICE PROJECT
The World Justice Project (WJP) is an independent, multidisciplinary organization working to create knowledge, build awareness, and stimulate action to advance the rule of law worldwide. Effective rule of law is the foundation for communities of justice, opportunity, and peace–underpinning development, accountable government, and respect for fundamental rights.
The WJP builds and supports a global, multidisciplinary movement for the rule of law through three lines of work: collecting, organizing, and analyzing original, independent rule of law data, including the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index; supporting research, scholarship, and teaching about the importance of the rule of law, its relationship to development, and effective strategies to strengthen it; and connecting and building an engaged global network of policymakers and advocates to advance the rule of law through strategic partnerships, convenings, coordinated advocacy, and support for locally led initiatives.
Learn more at: worldjusticeproject.org.
OTHER PUBLICATIONS
For more information click on the publication.
WJP Rule of Law Index 2022 Insights
Highlights and data trends from the WJP Rule of Law Index 2021
WJP Mexico States Rule of
Law Index 2020-2021
Perceptions and experiences in 32 states
World Justice Challenge 2021
Outcome Report
For more information or to read these reports, visit worldjusticeproject.org/our-work
